In a statistics course project, students are interested in the proportions of 1st year and 4th year students at UW-Madison students who have remained in Madison (in an apartment or in a residence hall) and the proportion that have returned home after courses moved to an online format after spring break. The following data shows the results of a survey. Analyze the data as if the respondents to the survey represent random samples from the populations of 1st and 4th year UW-Madison students. stayed returned 1st year 19 68 4th year 36 17 15 Find a 95% confidence interval for the difference in population proportions who returned home after spring break using a formula. Interpret the confidence interval in context.

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Answer:

The 95% confidence interval for the difference in population proportions who returned home after spring break is (0.31, 0.61).

Step-by-step explanation:

The (1 - α)% confidence interval for the difference between two population proportions is:

[tex]CI=(\hat p_{1}-\hat p_{2})\pm z_{\alpha/2}\times \sqrt{\frac{\hat p_{1}(1-\hat p_{1})}{n_{1}}+\frac{\hat p_{2}(1-\hat p_{2})}{n_{2}}}}[/tex]

The information provided is:

                Stayed    Returned

1st year          19           68

4th year        36            17

Compute the sample proportion of 1st year students who returned home as follows:

[tex]\hat p_{1}=\frac{68}{68+19}=0.782[/tex]

Compute the sample proportion of 4th year students who returned home as follows:

[tex]\hat p_{2}=\frac{17}{17+36}=0.321[/tex]

The critical value of z for 95% confidence level is:

[tex]z_{\alpha/2}=z_{0.05/2}=z_{0.025}=1.96[/tex]

Compute the 95% confidence interval for the difference between two proportions as follows:

[tex]CI=(\hat p_{1}-\hat p_{2})\pm z_{\alpha/2}\times \sqrt{\frac{\hat p_{1}(1-\hat p_{1})}{n_{1}}+\frac{\hat p_{2}(1-\hat p_{2})}{n_{2}}}}[/tex]

     [tex]=(0.782-0.321)\pm 1.96\times \sqrt{\frac{0.782(1-0.782)}{87}+\frac{0.321(1-0.321)}{53}}}[/tex]

     [tex]=0.461\pm (1.96\times 0.078)\\=0.461\pm 0.1529\\=(0.3081, 0.6139)\\\approx (0.31, 0.61)[/tex]

Thus, the 95% confidence interval for the difference in population proportions who returned home after spring break is (0.31, 0.61).

The 95% confidence interval for difference between two population proportions, (0.31, 0.61) implies that there is a 0.95 probability that the true difference between the proportions is included in the interval.